The sensitivity of the predictive skill of a decadal climate prediction system is investigated with respect to details of the initialization procedure. For this purpose, the coupled ocean–atmosphere UCLA/MITgcm climate model is initialized using the following three different initialization approaches: full state initialization (FSI), anomaly initialization (AI) and FSI employing heat flux and freshwater flux corrections (FC). The ocean initial conditions are provided by the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (GECCO project), from which ensembles of decadal hindcasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 2001. The predictive skill for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed against the GECCO synthesis. In regions with a deep mixed layer the predictive skill for SST anomalies remains significant for up to a decade in the FC experiment. By contrast, FSI shows less persistent skill in the North Atlantic and AI does not show high skill in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, but appears to be more skillful in the tropics. In the extratropics, the improved skill is related to the ability of the FC initialization method to better represent the mixed layer depth, and the highest skill occurs during wintertime. The correlation skill for the spatially averaged North Atlantic SSH hindcasts remains significant up to a decade only for FC. The North Atlantic MOC initialized hindcasts show high correlation values in the first pentad while correlation remains significant in the following pentad too for FSI and FC. Overall, for the current setup, the FC approach appears to lead to the best results, followed by the FSI and AI procedures. 相似文献
Water temperature is a key driver for riverine biota and strongly depends on shading by woody riparian vegetation in summer. While the general effects of shading on daily maximum water temperature Tmax are well understood, knowledge gaps on the role of the spatial configuration still exist. In this study, the effect of riparian buffer length, width, and canopy cover (percentage of buffer area covered by woody vegetation) on Tmax was investigated during summer baseflow using data measured in seven small lowland streams in western Germany (wetted width 0.8–3.7 m). The effect of buffer length on Tmax differed between downstream cooling and heating: Tmax approached cooler equilibrium conditions after a distance of 0.4 km (~45 min travel-time) downstream of a sharp increase in canopy cover. In contrast, Tmax continued to rise downstream of a sharp decrease in canopy cover along the whole 1.6 km stream length investigated. The effect of woody vegetation on Tmax depended on buffer width, with changes in canopy cover in a 10 m wide buffer being a better predictor for changes in Tmax compared to a 30 m buffer. The effect of woody vegetation on Tmax was linearly related to canopy cover but also depended on daily temperature range Trange, which itself was governed by cloudiness, upstream canopy cover, and season. The derived empirical relationship indicated that Tmax was reduced by −4.6°C and increased by +2.7°C downstream of a change from unshaded to fully shaded conditions and vice versa. This maximum effect was predicted for a 10 m wide buffer at sunny days in early summer, in streams with large diel fluctuations (large Trange). Therefore, even narrow woody riparian buffers may substantially reduce the increase in Tmax due to climate change, especially in small shallow headwater streams with low baseflow discharge and large daily temperature fluctuations. 相似文献
The Lonquimay volcanic complex (LVC) in the high Southern Andes comprises a stratocone and NE-trending flank-cone alignments. Numerous effusive and explosive volcanic eruptions characterize its post-glacial magmatic activity. Our tephrostratigraphic record, pre-dating the four historically documented eruptions, comprises 22 dated pyroclastic deposits that are used to constrain repose time distribution and eruption probability of the LVC magmatic system. Statistical examination of the stratigraphy-based eruption time series yields probabilities of 20–50 % for at least one explosive (VEI ≥ 3) eruption within the next 100 years as of 2011. The tephra deposits are subdivided into three petrographic groups: a felsic group (Lonquimay colored-pumice tephra, LCPT), an intermediate population (Lonquimay gray pumice tephra, LGPT), and a mafic member (Lonquimay dark scoria tephra, LDST). The distribution of these petrographic groups through the LVC tephrostratigraphy is linked to the observed changes in repose times. LDST-deposits as well as deposits compositionally zoned from LCPT to LGPT dominate the lower part of the stratigraphy for which recurrence times are short (RTmean = 417 ± 169a). Deposits younger than 6,000 b2k (years before 2000 AD) have dominantly LCPT and minor LDST compositions, no longer contain LGPT, and repose times are significantly longer (RTmean = 1,350 ± 310a). We interpret the change in eruption regime to result from a rearrangement in the magma storage and plumbing system. Thermobarometric calculations based on cpx–liquid equilibria and amphibole compositions reveal three distinct magma storage levels: the mafic LDST derive from mid crustal storage (Pmean = 476 ± 95 MPa, Tmean = 1,073 ± 24 °C), felsic LCPT mainly erupted from upper-crustal level (Pmean = 86 ± 49 MPa, Tmean = 936 ± 24 °C), whereas LGPT samples yield intermediate storage depths (Pmean = 239 ± 100 MPa, Tmean = 1,013 ± 17 °C). Magma contributions from this intermediate reservoir are restricted to >6,000 b2k when the Lonquimay plumbing system was in a regime of short repose times; disappearance of the intermediate reservoir coincides with the change to longer repose times between eruptions. 相似文献
Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.
Rivers are worldwide highly fragmented due to human impacts. This fragmentation has a negative effect on fish movement and dispersal. Many artificial barriers such as river bed sills and small weirs are nowadays replaced by block ramps in order to reestablish longitudinal connectivity for fish in rivers and streams. We studied the upstream passage of several fish species on different types of block ramps with slopes between 3.6 and 13.4 %. We conducted translocation experiments in the field based on mark-recapture and on the use of PIT-tags. Temporal movement patterns were observed by an instream antenna. Hydraulic and morphological characteristics of block ramps were measured and compared with fish passage efficiency. Our results clearly showed that upstream passage efficiency differs between fish species, size classes and block ramps. We observed that brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) performed better than bullhead (Cottus gobio) and several cyprinid species on the same block ramps. Passage efficiency of brown trout and chub (Leuciscus cephalus) was size-selective, with small-sized individuals being less successful. For brown trout, size-selectivity became more relevant with increasing slope of ramp. We conclude that block ramps with slopes of >5 % are ineffective for the small-sized cyprinid species and that vertical drops within step-pool ramps can hinder successful upstream passage of bullhead. 相似文献
The use of reclaimed water and its impact on groundwater quality in the middle and southern parts of the Jordan Valley are investigated. The chemical analyses indicate that nitrate and bacteriological pollution is widespread, and thus, seriously affects groundwater use. During the study, 365 water samples were collected from wells and springs to determine the water chemistry and the extent of nitrate pollution. Three hydrochemical facies are identifed, i. e., (Ca–(Mg)–Na–HCO3), (Ca–Na–SO4–Cl) and (Ca–Na–Cl). The change of facies is accompanied by a gradual increase in the groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS), which is mainly controlled by evaporates and carbonates dissolution in the aquifer matrix. Water analyses indicate that the shallow aquifer in the study area is affected by non‐point pollution sources, primarily from natural (manure) and chemical nitrogen (N)‐fertilizers and treated wastewater used for agriculture. The concentration of nitrate in the groundwater ranges from 10 to 355 mg/L. Considerable seasonal fluctuations in groundwater quality are observed as a consequence of agricultural practices and other factors such as annual rainfall distribution and the Zarqa River flow. The noticeable levels of total coliform and Escherichia coli in the northern part of the study area may be attributed to contamination from the urban areas, intensive livestock production, and illegal dumping of sewage. Heavy metal concentrations in all samples were found to be significantly lower than the permissible limits for drinking water standards. 相似文献
Late Triassic A‐type granites are identified in this study in Sarudik, SW Sumatra. We present new data on zircon U–Pb geochronology, whole‐rock major and trace elements and Sr‐Nd‐Hf isotope geochemistry, aiming to study their petrogenesis and tectonic implications. LA‐ICP‐MS U–Pb dating of zircon separated from one biotite monzogranite sample yields a concordia age of 222.6 ±1.0 Ma, indicating a Late Triassic magmatic event. The studied granites are classified as weakly peralumious, high‐K calc‐alkaline granites. They exhibit high SiO2, K2O + Na2O, FeO/(FeO + MgO) and Ga/Al ratios and low Al2O3, CaO, MgO, P2O5 and TiO2 contents, with enrichment of Rb, Th and U and depletion of Ba, Sr, P and Eu, showing the features of A‐type granites. The granites have zircon εHf(t) values from ?4.6 to ?0.4 and whole‐rock εNd(t) values from ?5.51 to ?4.98, with Mesoproterozoic TDM2 ages (1278–1544 Ma) for both Hf and Nd isotopes. Geochemical and isotopic data suggest that the source of these A‐type granites is the Mesoproterozoic continental crust, without significant incorporation of mantle‐derived component, and their formation is controlled by subsequent fractional crystallization. The Sarudik A‐type granites are further assigned to A2‐type formed in post‐collisional environment. Combined with previous knowledge on the western SE Asia tectonic evolution, we conclude that the formation of the Late Triassic A‐type granites is related to the post‐collisional extension induced by the crustal thickening, gravitational collapse, and asthenosphere upwelling following the collision between the Sibumasu and the East Malaya Block. 相似文献